Analysis1
Is 7-7 really strong on the final day?
56.2%
Final-day win rate for rikishi who were 7-7
Conclusion
It is true. A rikishi who reaches the final day at 7-7 wins 56.2% of the time, six points above an even expectation. The mirror image is a rikishi at 8-6 whose winning record is already secure: that group wins only 45.0%. The effect has narrowed since 2011, but a must-win situation still shows up in the data.
Methodology
- Period
- 2000 Hatsu Basho～2026 Natsu Basho
- Sample
- A case in which Makuuchi Kunio took 14 bouts until the 14th day and also participated in the Final Day with 7 wins and 7 losses.
- Sample size
- 915 cases
- Calculation
- Samplerikishi's Final dayWin rate. 56.2%
- comparison
- 8 wins, 6 losses is 45.0% (969 cases), 6 wins, 8 losses is 49.9% (897 cases)
- age difference
- 2000s 59.9% (387 cases), 2011 Hatsu Basho 100% (6 cases), 2011 Natsu Basho onward 52.9% (522 cases)
How to read this
These are descriptive statistics that do not adjust for opponent's strength or bout formation. The same rikishi may appear in multiple Bashos.