Analysis5
Is 7-7 really strong on the final day?
Conclusion
It is true. A rikishi who reaches the final day at 7-7 wins 56.2% of the time, six points above an even expectation. The mirror image is a rikishi at 8-6 whose winning record is already secure: that group wins only 45.0%. The effect has narrowed since 2011, but a must-win situation still shows up in the data.
How to read this number
A 7-7 record is the heaviest fork in the fifteen days: one bout decides whether the tournament ends as a winning or a losing record. Set against the 45.0% managed by rikishi at 8-6, whose winning record is already safe, the gap is eleven points. It may say less about grit than about who has nothing left to protect and therefore never fights defensively.
The figure is descriptive and does not adjust for opponent strength. The final day tends to pair rikishi with matching records, so a 7-7 rikishi is often matched against another 7-7 rikishi, and one of them must win. Scheduling, not only determination, is folded into the number.
The effect has also shrunk over time, from 59.9% in the 2000s to 52.9% from Natsu 2011 onward. That period follows a broad review of how bouts are arranged, but the data cannot establish cause. We record only that the number moved.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- A case in which Makuuchi Kunio took 14 bouts until the 14th day and also participated in the Final Day with 7 wins and 7 losses.
- Sample size
- 915 cases
- Calculation
- Samplerikishi's Final dayWin rate. 56.2%
- comparison
- 8 wins, 6 losses is 45.0% (969 cases), 6 wins, 8 losses is 49.9% (897 cases)
- age difference
- 2000s 59.9% (387 cases), 2011 Hatsu Basho 100% (6 cases), 2011 Natsu Basho onward 52.9% (522 cases)
How to read this
These are descriptive statistics that do not adjust for opponent's strength or bout formation. The same rikishi may appear in multiple Bashos.