Analysis17
Do hometown rikishi really perform better?
Conclusion
There is no broad home advantage in this sample. Rikishi from the Osaka, Nagoya, and Fukuoka regions won 47.3% at their local basho, compared with 47.9% elsewhere. Individual venue records can stand out in small samples, but the overall data is not a prediction signal.
How to read this number
Rikishi from the Osaka, Nagoya and Fukuoka regions won 47.3% at their local tournament, below the 47.9% they managed elsewhere. That runs against intuition, but the difference is small enough that the honest reading is simply no effect.
Individual pages sometimes show a rikishi who looks unusually strong at one venue. Those records rest on a few dozen bouts. Rolling a die sixty times produces uneven counts too, and most of these patterns are the same kind of small-sample noise.
None of this says the home crowd is worthless. It says the value does not appear in the win column.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- Makuuchi Kuniorikishi from Osaka/Nagoya/Fukuoka area
- Sample size
- 4,042 people at the local venue, 20,502 people at other venues
- Calculation
- Local Basho 47.3%, other venues 47.9%
- Reference
- 48.8% from Tokyo (7,861 bouts total) and 50.6% from regional areas (7,804 bouts total)
How to read this
This is a summary of birthplaces in a wide area. Individual differences and opponent strength were not adjusted.