Analysis20
Do new Makuuchi rikishi win on momentum?
Conclusion
First-time Makuuchi rikishi averaged 7.42 wins and made kachi-koshi exactly half the time. That is only slightly above returning Makuuchi rikishi and long-serving rank-and-file rikishi. Momentum exists, but the Makuuchi wall remains high for everyone.
How to read this number
First-time Makuuchi rikishi averaged 7.42 wins with a kachi-koshi rate of exactly 50.0%, slightly ahead of returning rikishi at 7.23 and long-serving rank-and-file rikishi at 7.28.
The momentum is real but measured in tenths of a win, not in anything dramatic. The Makuuchi wall stands at much the same height for newcomers and veterans alike.
Knowing this makes a double-digit debut look far more remarkable. In a division where the average is 7.42 wins and half of all newcomers fall short, ten or more wins suggests a rikishi already carrying upper-division ability.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- Basho went to Makuuchi Kunio for the first time and took 15 bouts.
- Sample size
- New entrance 200Basho, re-entry 396Basho, current entrance 30Basho or more3,166Basho
- Calculation
- New recruits average 7.42 wins, winning record rate 50.0%
- comparison
- Re-enrollers have 7.23 wins and 48.0%, veteran Hiramaku have 7.28 wins and 48.2%.
How to read this
Rikishi whose first Makuuchi KunioBanzuke is immediately after the start of data is excluded.