Analysis19
Do rikishi relax after kachi-koshi?
Conclusion
The rate drops after an eighth win, but it is too early to call it complacency. Late in a basho, the schedule increasingly pairs rikishi with strong records. Those who reached kachi-koshi by Day 10 still won 58.0% afterward.
How to read this number
After the eighth win the rate falls to 52.7% from 65.4% up to that point. Taken alone, the drop invites the word complacency.
But the closing days pair rikishi by record. The earlier a rikishi secures a winning record, the more his remaining opponents are themselves winning, and the average quality of opposition rises. Rikishi who reached kachi-koshi by Day 10 went on to win 58.0%, which fits a harder schedule better than a loss of focus.
When a title contender drops bouts late, it is often described as letting up. Much of it may simply be a run of opponents from the top of the banzuke.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- Makuuchi Kuniorikishi reached his 8th win during Basho and had bouts after that.
- Sample size
- Number 8,270 after 8 wins. After reaching 10 days, number 4,026
- Calculation
- Win rate 52.7% after 8th win. The same rikishi to reach is 65.4%
- comparison
- Rikishi's winning record by Day 10 is 58.0%.
How to read this
After a winning record, there is an effect of combining good records. This number is not just a measure of psychological ``looseness.''