Analysis14
Does decline begin after age 30?
Conclusion
Makuuchi win rates step down from 52.8% at ages 20-24 to 50.2% at 25-29, 47.6% at 30-34, and 43.7% at 35 and over. Selection matters, but the downward slope is clear in the results.
How to read this number
Win rates step down almost without exception: 52.8% at ages 20-24, 50.2% at 25-29, 47.6% at 30-34 and 43.7% from 35. By 29 a rikishi is already below even at 49.3%.
The number does not isolate age. Anyone in the top division in his early twenties reached it unusually fast, so talent and youth are bundled together here and cannot be separated.
Perhaps the slope is most useful as a measure of what veterans are doing. Staying in Makuuchi past 35 and still posting winning records is genuinely exceptional, and those bouts reward being watched for something other than the probability.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- Makuuchi Kuniorikishi's participation record where you can check his date of birth
- Sample size
- 92,298 people number. 29 years old is number 8,570
- By age
- 20-24 years old 52.8%, 25-29 years old 50.2%, 30-34 years old 47.6%, 35 years old or more43.7%
- Calculation
- Number of wins / number of appearances at each age. 29 years old: 49.3%
How to read this
Rikishi who rise to Makuuchi Kunio at a young age include the selection effect of being strong from the beginning. Age is not the only causal effect.