Do heavier rikishi fade late?

Conclusion

Rikishi weighing at least 158 kg fell from a 50.5% win rate on Days 1-5 to 47.8% on Days 11-15. Lighter rikishi moved the other way, from 48.3% to 50.7%. The figures use current published bodyweights as an approximation, but support a modest late-basho boost for lighter rikishi.

Methodology

Period

2022 Hatsu Basho～2026 Natsu Basho

Sample

Makuuchi Kuniorikishi is currently divided into three groups based on weight. Weight class is 158kg or more

Sample size

Heavy class: 5,202 people, lightweight class: 5,645 people

Calculation

Heavyweight: 1-5 Days 50.5% to 11-15 Days 47.8% -2.7 points

comparison

Lightweight class under 142kg: +2.4 points from 48.3% to 50.7%

How to read this

This is an approximation that uses the current published weight instead of the past weight. Weight changes and absences are not separated.