Analysis13
Do heavier rikishi fade late?
Conclusion
Rikishi weighing at least 158 kg fell from a 50.5% win rate on Days 1-5 to 47.8% on Days 11-15. Lighter rikishi moved the other way, from 48.3% to 50.7%. The figures use current published bodyweights as an approximation, but support a modest late-basho boost for lighter rikishi.
How to read this number
The heaviest group, above 158 kg, falls from 50.5% on Days 1-5 to 47.8% from Day 11. Lighter rikishi move the other way, 48.3% to 50.7%, so a 2.2-point gap early becomes a 2.9-point gap the other way.
One caveat matters. Weight comes from each rikishi's current published figure, not his weight during that tournament, so anyone whose weight changed over a long career may be misclassified. The sample also begins only at Hatsu 2022.
The direction, though, matches what many viewers sense. If lighter rikishi seem to hold up better in the closing days, that impression has some support in the record.
Methodology
- Period
- 2022 Hatsu Basho～2026 Natsu Basho
- Sample
- Makuuchi Kuniorikishi is currently divided into three groups based on weight. Weight class is 158kg or more
- Sample size
- Heavy class: 5,202 people, lightweight class: 5,645 people
- Calculation
- Heavyweight: 1-5 Days 50.5% to 11-15 Days 47.8% -2.7 points
- comparison
- Lightweight class under 142kg: +2.4 points from 48.3% to 50.7%
How to read this
This is an approximation that uses the current published weight instead of the past weight. Weight changes and absences are not separated.