Analysis7
Do rikishi tend to lose after a kinboshi?
Conclusion
After an unranked rikishi defeats a Yokozuna for a kinboshi, his next-day win rate is 38.0%, ten points below his rate on other days of that basho. The next opponent is often another elite rikishi, so the result reflects both the emotional aftermath and a difficult schedule.
How to read this number
The 38.0% figure is measured against the same rikishi's 48.2% on other days of the same basho. Because the comparison is within the same wrestler, it cannot be explained away by saying he was weak to begin with. Something really does change the next day.
The cause, however, is not necessarily an emotional letdown. Beating a Yokozuna means the rikishi sits high enough in the rank-and-file to keep facing elite opponents, so the next bout is often against an Ozeki or Sekiwake. Aftermath and a hard schedule are mixed into the same number.
It still works as a viewing note. When a rikishi who took a kinboshi the previous day steps onto the clay again, the hall expects a repeat, and the data quietly tempers that expectation.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- A case where Hiramaku had a win for Yokozuna and a bout on the next day as well.
- Sample size
- 221 cases
- Calculation
- Win rate the next day of rikishi who raised Kinboshi. 38.0%
- comparison
- Kinboshi of the same rikishi and same Basho except on the same day and the next day is 48.2%
How to read this
Banzuke, the opponent for the next day, is not prepared. The numbers include consecutive matches against top teams such as Ozeki.