Analysis8
Is a return from absence dangerous?
Conclusion
The data points in the opposite direction. Rikishi returning after missing an entire basho won 59.2% of their bouts in the comeback tournament and 65.9% on opening day. A strong rikishi who sat out often returns at a lower rank and faces lower-ranked opponents.
How to read this number
This one is interesting mainly because of why the belief exists. The image of a senior rikishi struggling after an injury sticks in the memory. Aggregated, though, comeback tournaments show a 59.2% win rate, rising to 65.9% on opening day.
The answer is the banzuke. Missing an entire tournament drops a rikishi sharply in rank, so the comeback is fought against lower-ranked opponents. The 59.2% measures the rank change, not the rest. The rikishi in danger is the one drawn against a strong opponent who has fallen down the banzuke.
The strength index is built to catch exactly this gap. Rank falls after an absence while the index does not, so returning rikishi often appear stronger than their rank. A red triangle on the ranking page frequently marks this situation.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- rikishi took a break from previous basho and participated in Makuuchi Kunio in next basho
- Sample size
- 82Basho
- Calculation
- Average win rate for each returning Basho. Basho overall 59.2%, day 165.9%
- comparison
- 53.3% after mid-season break (268 Basho), 48.6% after full participation (5,327 Basho)
How to read this
The effect of Banzuke dropping due to suspension is not separated. You can't say cause and effect, ``I'm strong because I got revenge.''