Is a return from absence dangerous?

Conclusion

The data points in the opposite direction. Rikishi returning after missing an entire basho won 59.2% of their bouts in the comeback tournament and 65.9% on opening day. A strong rikishi who sat out often returns at a lower rank and faces lower-ranked opponents.

Methodology

Period

2000 Hatsu Basho～2026 Natsu Basho

Sample

rikishi took a break from previous basho and participated in Makuuchi Kunio in next basho

Sample size

82Basho

Calculation

Average win rate for each returning Basho. Basho overall 59.2%, day 165.9%

comparison

53.3% after mid-season break (268 Basho), 48.6% after full participation (5,327 Basho)

How to read this

The effect of Banzuke dropping due to suspension is not separated. You can't say cause and effect, ``I'm strong because I got revenge.''