Analysis9
Are kadoban Ozeki stronger?
Conclusion
Kadoban Ozeki averaged 8.15 wins and made kachi-koshi 78.2% of the time, above the 75.3% rate for Ozeki who were not kadoban. The data cannot measure motivation directly, but the pressure to survive coincides with notably strong results.
How to read this number
Kadoban means an Ozeki who lost more than he won last time and will be demoted if he does so again. Those Ozeki averaged 8.15 wins with a 78.2% kachi-koshi rate, slightly above the 75.3% of Ozeki who were not under threat. Performance does not fall on the brink; it edges up.
There is a hidden bias worth naming. Some Ozeki who decline far enough to face kadoban are demoted or retire, so the surviving record leans toward those who kept the rank. We may be looking only at the ones who made it through.
Even so, 78.2% is enough to reject the idea that kadoban Ozeki are fragile. There is no need to discount the sumo of an Ozeki fighting for his rank.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- Ozeki reigned in Ozeki for 2 consecutive bashos and recorded losing the previous basho
- Sample size
- Corner number 110Basho, normal time 389Basho
- Calculation
- Basho with 8 wins or more ÷ Basho who participated. 78.2%, average 8.15 wins
- comparison
- During normal times, Ozeki has a winning record rate of 75.3% and an average of 8.33 wins.
How to read this
It is not a small exception in the system, but a machine with less than 8 wins is judged by the machine as a square number.