Analysis10
Style matchups were almost even
Conclusion
We retested the favourite idea of style matchups using only bouts where the pre-bout strength indexes were nearly even. Pushing-style rikishi won 49.7%, against 50.3% for belt wrestlers: essentially a coin flip. Individual rivalries matter, but style alone is too small a signal to decide a prediction.
How to read this number
The point of this test is that strength was held constant. Counting every bout, pushing-style rikishi win only 48.2%, but that partly reflects how many strong rikishi prefer the belt. Restricted to bouts where the pre-bout strength indexes were nearly level, the split becomes 49.7% to 50.3%.
In other words, pushing is not weak against the belt; rikishi who take the belt are more often strong. If style itself decided bouts, a gap would survive once strength was equalised.
Individual rikishi certainly have opponents they handle well or badly. What fails here is the idea that a category as broad as pushing versus belt can predict a result. The technique radar on each rikishi page is a better place to look for a wrestler's actual shape.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- Makuuchi Kunio divided into two types, push type and four types, using winning techniques until before the bout. Both have type data of 20 wins or more
- Even conditions
- Before the bout strength-index gap is within 40
- Sample size
- 5,145 bouts
- Calculation
- Number of wins for Pushing style type rikishi ÷ Number of samples. 49.7%
- comparison
- Of all 17,921 bouts with no uniform strength, 48.2% were on the push side.
How to read this
A type is updated only by its first WinWinning technique. It's just an average difference, and it doesn't negate the quirks between specific rikishi.