Style matchups were almost even

Conclusion

We retested the favourite idea of style matchups using only bouts where the pre-bout strength indexes were nearly even. Pushing-style rikishi won 49.7%, against 50.3% for belt wrestlers: essentially a coin flip. Individual rivalries matter, but style alone is too small a signal to decide a prediction.

Methodology

Period

2000 Hatsu Basho～2026 Natsu Basho

Sample

Makuuchi Kunio divided into two types, push type and four types, using winning techniques until before the bout. Both have type data of 20 wins or more

Even conditions

Before the bout strength-index gap is within 40

Sample size

5,145 bouts

Calculation

Number of wins for Pushing style type rikishi ÷ Number of samples. 49.7%

comparison

Of all 17,921 bouts with no uniform strength, 48.2% were on the push side.

How to read this

A type is updated only by its first WinWinning technique. It's just an average difference, and it doesn't negate the quirks between specific rikishi.