Does the Day 8 leader go on to win the championship?

Conclusion

Put simply, the eventual champion came from the Day 8 leader group in roughly four out of five basho. From Aki 2000 through Natsu 2026, this happened in 122 of 153 basho, or 79.7%; the other 31 champions came from behind. The 79.7% figure applies to the leader group, not to each rikishi in it. Among 101 individual rikishi who led at 7-1 after Day 8, 28 became champion, or 27.7%. Day 8 often identifies the group that contains the champion, but not the champion himself.

Methodology

Period

Aki 2000 through Natsu 2026; 153 basho

All 153 basho

In 122 basho, the champion was in the leader group after Day 8 (79.7%)

Come-from-behind champions

A rikishi outside the Day 8 leader group won in 31 basho (20.3%)

Per individual leader

There were 101 individual Day 8 leaders at 7-1; 28 became champion (27.7%)

Leader groups at 7-1

The champion came from that group in 28 of 37 basho (75.7%)

How to read this

We matched Makuuchi records through Day 8 with the eventual champion. The missing Natsu 2012 award record was reconstructed from Kyokutenho's playoff win on Day 16.