When does a winning Maegashira begin facing the top ranks?

Conclusion

The earliest is Day 8, but the real shift comes on Day 10. We followed undefeated rikishi ranked Maegashira 6 or lower from Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026. None of the 142 rikishi who entered Day 6 at 5-0, nor the 69 who entered Day 7 at 6-0, faced a sanyaku opponent. On Day 8 the figure was two of 41, and on Day 9 it was two of 23. By Day 10, five of the 12 rikishi still perfect faced sanyaku, or 41.7%. Count Maegashira 1-5 as upper-rank opponents too, and the figure is seven of 12, or 58.3%. An early streak alone does not guarantee an elite matchup; the schedule tightens sharply only if the rikishi keeps winning.

Methodology

Period

Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026; 157 completed basho

Sample

Undefeated rikishi ranked Maegashira 6 or lower before that day's bout

Days 6-7

No sanyaku opponents for either the 142 rikishi at 5-0 or the 69 at 6-0

Days 8-9

Two of 41 rikishi at 7-0 (4.9%), and two of 23 at 8-0 (8.7%)

Day 10

Five of 12 rikishi at 9-0 faced sanyaku (41.7%); seven faced an upper-rank opponent when Maegashira 1-5 are included (58.3%)

Later in the basho

Of 142 rikishi who started 5-0, 67 faced sanyaku by the final day (47.2%)

How to read this

Sanyaku here means Yokozuna, Ozeki, Sekiwake, and Komusubi. Only regulation bouts are counted; playoffs are excluded. The sample becomes small from Day 10 onward, so treat this as a historical pattern rather than a forecast probability.