Analysis3
How often does a demoted Ozeki return immediately?
28.6%
Immediate Ozeki-return rate after demotion
Conclusion
It is a narrow route. From Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026, there were 21 cases of an Ozeki appearing at Sekiwake in the next banzuke. Only six returned to Ozeki one basho later: Takanonami, Musoyama, Tochiazuma twice, Tochinoshin, and Takakeisho. That is 28.6%. The special route requires at least ten wins immediately after demotion, so about seven in ten attempts fell short. Four of the six successful attempts ended 10-5; one more loss would have ended the immediate-return bid.
Methodology
- Period
- Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
- Sample
- 21 cases in which the banzuke moved from Ozeki to Sekiwake
- Immediate return
- Six returned to Ozeki in the following banzuke, or 28.6%
- Successful rikishi
- Takanonami, Musoyama, Tochiazuma twice, Tochinoshin, and Takakeisho
How to read this
We judge the return from the next banzuke rather than a bout-record total. The current special-return rule requires at least ten wins immediately after demotion.