Data Oyakata
Grand Sumo Predictions
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Analysis3

How often does a demoted Ozeki return immediately?

28.6% Immediate Ozeki-return rate after demotion

Conclusion

It is a narrow route. From Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026, there were 21 cases of an Ozeki appearing at Sekiwake in the next banzuke. Only six returned to Ozeki one basho later: Takanonami, Musoyama, Tochiazuma twice, Tochinoshin, and Takakeisho. That is 28.6%. The special route requires at least ten wins immediately after demotion, so about seven in ten attempts fell short. Four of the six successful attempts ended 10-5; one more loss would have ended the immediate-return bid.

Methodology

Period
Hatsu 2000 through Natsu 2026
Sample
21 cases in which the banzuke moved from Ozeki to Sekiwake
Immediate return
Six returned to Ozeki in the following banzuke, or 28.6%
Successful rikishi
Takanonami, Musoyama, Tochiazuma twice, Tochinoshin, and Takakeisho

How to read this

We judge the return from the next banzuke rather than a bout-record total. The current special-return rule requires at least ten wins immediately after demotion.