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2026 Natsu Basho Makuuchi Win-loss predictions｜Data Oyakata

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Data Oyakata's Makuuchi win probabilities

This site is a statistical research project that analyses every recorded sumo bout to help you enjoy watching the sport more deeply. It neither encourages nor takes part in betting of any kind, and the predictions published here are for entertainment only.

Final day Results This day Oyakata 67%(12/18)
This Basho's Banzuke Active Rikishi
Banzuke Active rikishi and 2026 Natsu Basho ▼
eastwest

Select a rikishi to view their record.See up to Juryo →

Final day's Makuuchi bout results

Results for this Basho

Special prizes

Oyakata results 12/18 67%
・
Correct ✓ ◎ High confidence
u
eastMaegashira 11
Ura
●Loss
25%
fog
west Ozeki
Kirishima
○ Win
75%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Kirishima ButOshitaoshiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Kirishima

Kirishima has the highest physical strength. If it's appropriate, I'll push through. There is also a chance for Kinboshi in Ura. Previous basho had a good record with 12 wins and 3 losses.

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Head-to-head Ura 4 - 10 Kirishima
Strength index 2393 — 2630
Previous basho 5 wins, 10 losses — 12 wins, 3 losses
See Ura See Kirishima
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 9Day Kirishima のsakatottari
2025 Kyushu Basho 15Day Kirishima Oshitaoshi of
2024 Kyushu Basho 2Day Ura Tsukiotoshi
2024 Aki Basho 8Day Kirishima Oshitaoshi of
2024 Haru Basho 3Day Ura Tsukiotoshi
・
Correct ✓ ○ Advantage
fever
east Sekiwake
Atamifuji
○ Win
67%
Europe
westMaegashira 8
Oshoma
●Loss
33%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Atamifuji ButOshidashiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Atamifuji

Atamifuji has the highest soil potential. If it's appropriate, I'll push through. Atamifuji is riding high with three consecutive wins. Atamifuji is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Atamifuji 7 - 0 Oshoma
Strength index 2507 — 2346
Previous basho 9 wins, 6 losses — 6 wins, 9 losses
See Atamifuji See Oshoma
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 8Day Atamifuji Oshidashi
2025 Kyushu Basho 5Day Atamifuji Oshidashi
2025 Haru Basho 3Day Atamifuji Yorikiri of
2024 Kyushu Basho 2Day Atamifuji Yorikiri of
2023 Nagoya Basho 7Day Atamifuji Oshidashi
・
Correct ✓ ○ Advantage
beauty
eastMaegashira 6
Churanoumi
●Loss
38%
Koto
west Sekiwake
Kotoshoho
○ Win
62%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Kotoshoho ButHikiotoshiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Kotoshoho

Kotoshoho is somewhat advantageous. Previous basho had a good record with 10 wins and 4 losses. Kotoshoho is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Churanoumi 5 - 9 Kotoshoho
Strength index 2396 — 2452
Previous basho 4 wins, 11 losses — 11 wins, 4 losses
See Churanoumi See Kotoshoho
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 11Day Churanoumi Oshidashi
2025 Kyushu Basho 8Day Kotoshoho Oshidashi
2025 Nagoya Basho 10Day Kotoshoho Sukuinage of
2025 Haru Basho 7Day Churanoumi Oshidashi
2025 Hatsu Basho 10Day Churanoumi Tsukiotoshi
・
Correct ✓ ▲ Close bout
young
eastMaegashira 5
Wakamotoharu
●Loss
41%
Wisteria
westMaegashira 1
Fujinokawa
○ Win
59%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Fujinokawa ButHatakikomiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Fujinokawa

The soil strength is even, and it will be the best depending on the performance on the day. Fujinokawa is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Wakamotoharu 0 - 1 Fujinokawa
Strength index 2390 — 2431
Previous basho 3 wins, 12 losses — 8 wins, 7 losses
See Wakamotoharu See Fujinokawa
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Haru Basho 6Day Fujinokawa Oshidashi
・
Correct ✓ ○ Advantage
thousand
eastMaegashira 7
Chiyoshoma
●Loss
31%
Takashi
westMaegashira 1
Takanosho
○ Win
69%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Takanosho ButHatakikomiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Takanosho

Takanosho is somewhat advantageous.

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Head-to-head Chiyoshoma 7 - 9 Takanosho
Strength index 2288 — 2426
Previous basho 10 wins, 5 losses — 9 wins, 6 losses
See Chiyoshoma See Takanosho
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 14Day Chiyoshoma Tottari
2025 Nagoya Basho 7Day Takanosho Okuridashi
2025 Haru Basho 14Day Chiyoshoma Oshidashi
2023 Nagoya Basho 12Day Chiyoshoma Hatakikomi
2023 Natsu Basho 11Day Takanosho Oshidashi
・
Correct ✓ ◎ High confidence
Koto
eastMaegashira 13
Kotoeiho
●Loss
27%
righteousness
westMaegashira 2
Yoshinofuji
○ Win
73%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Yoshinofuji ButYorikiriDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Yoshinofuji

Yoshinofuji is the best in terms of strength. If it's appropriate, I'll push through. Yoshinofuji is good at recording matches.

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Head-to-head Kotoeiho 0 - 2 Yoshinofuji
Strength index 2365 — 2542
Previous basho 9 wins, 6 losses — 7 wins, 8 losses
See Kotoeiho See Yoshinofuji
Head-to-head record before this bout
2025 Nagoya Basho 7Day Yoshinofuji Sukuinage of
2025 Natsu Basho 12Day Yoshinofuji Yorikiri of
・
Correct ✓ ▲ Close bout
One
eastMaegashira 2
Ichiyamamoto
○ Win
59%
Positive
westMaegashira 5
Shodai
●Loss
41%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Ichiyamamoto ButOshidashiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Ichiyamamoto

Ichiyamamoto is somewhat advantageous. Ichiyamamoto is a little worried about his 3 losses in a row. Ichiyamamoto is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Ichiyamamoto 3 - 1 Shodai
Strength index 2394 — 2336
Previous basho 9 wins, 6 losses — 8 wins, 7 losses
See Ichiyamamoto See Shodai
Head-to-head record before this bout
2025 Kyushu Basho 7Day Shodai Yorikiri of
2025 Haru Basho 7Day Ichiyamamoto Hatakikomi
2024 Nagoya Basho 2Day Ichiyamamoto Oshidashi
2024 Haru Basho 2Day Ichiyamamoto Tsukidashi
・
Correct ✓ ○ Advantage
flat
eastMaegashira 3
Hiradoumi
○ Win
70%
ball
westMaegashira 13
Tamawashi
●Loss
30%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Hiradoumi ButYorikiriDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Hiradoumi

Hiradoumi is somewhat advantageous. Tamawashi is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Hiradoumi 4 - 8 Tamawashi
Strength index 2422 — 2237
Previous basho 7 wins, 8 losses — 5 wins, 10 losses
See Hiradoumi See Tamawashi
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 3Day Hiradoumi Yorikiri of
2025 Kyushu Basho 4Day Tamawashi Kubihineri of
2025 Aki Basho 13Day Hiradoumi Yorikiri of
2025 Nagoya Basho 1Day Tamawashi Tsukiotoshi
2025 Natsu Basho 15Day Tamawashi Oshitaoshi of
・
Correct ✓ ○ Advantage
Ah
eastMaegashira 9
Abi
●Loss
36%
king
westMaegashira 3
Oho
○ Win
64%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Oho ButTsukidashiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Oho

Wang Peng has a bit of an advantage. Wang Peng is riding high with five consecutive wins.

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Head-to-head Abi 5 - 5 Oho
Strength index 2321 — 2476
Previous basho 4 wins, 6 losses — 7 wins, 8 losses
See Abi See Oho
Head-to-head record before this bout
2025 Aki Basho 8Day Oho Oshidashi
2025 Nagoya Basho 12Day Abi Okuridashi
2025 Natsu Basho 6Day Abi Hatakikomi
2025 Haru Basho 5Day Oho Oshidashi
2025 Hatsu Basho 1Day Oho Okuridashi
・
Correct ✓ ○ Advantage
Large
eastMaegashira 4
Daieisho
○ Win
65%
God
westMaegashira 14
Mitakeumi
●Loss
35%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Daieisho ButTsukiotoshiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Daieisho

Daieisho is somewhat advantageous.

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Head-to-head Daieisho 15 - 17 Mitakeumi
Strength index 2449 — 2298
Previous basho 7 wins, 8 losses — 8 wins, 7 losses
See Daieisho See Mitakeumi
Head-to-head record before this bout
2025 Aki Basho 6Day Mitakeumi Oshitaoshi of
2024 Aki Basho 3Day Daieisho Yoritaoshi of
2024 Nagoya Basho 12Day Mitakeumi Oshidashi
2024 Natsu Basho 13Day Daieisho Oshidashi
2023 Nagoya Basho 2Day Daieisho Tsukidashi
・
Miss ○ Advantage
Australia
eastMaegashira 4
Gonoyama
●Loss
71%
wolf
westMaegashira 14
Roga
○ Win
29%
Data Oyakata Miss
Roga ButYoritaoshiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Gonoyama

Gonoyama is a little more advantageous. I'm a little worried about Gonoyama as he has lost four games in a row. Previous basho had a good record with 10 wins and 5 losses.

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Head-to-head Gonoyama 8 - 3 Roga
Strength index 2417 — 2279
Previous basho 10 wins, 5 losses — 5 wins, 10 losses
See Gonoyama See Roga
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Haru Basho 1Day Gonoyama Oshidashi
2026 Hatsu Basho 1Day Roga Oshidashi
2025 Kyushu Basho 8Day Gonoyama Oshidashi
2025 Nagoya Basho 12Day Gonoyama Yorikiri of
2024 Kyushu Basho 4Day Gonoyama Tsukidashi
・
Miss ▲ Close bout
Haku
eastMaegashira 10
Hakunofuji
○ Win
49%
Wisteria
westMaegashira 6
Fujiseiun
●Loss
51%
Data Oyakata Miss
Hakunofuji ButHatakikomiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Hakunofuji

The soil strength is even, and it will be the best depending on the performance on the day. Fujiseiun is good at recording matches.

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Head-to-head Hakunofuji 0 - 1 Fujiseiun
Strength index 2447 — 2343
Previous basho 5 wins, 6 losses — 10 wins, 5 losses
See Hakunofuji See Fujiseiun
Head-to-head record before this bout
2024 Nagoya Basho 2Day Fujiseiun Yorikiri of
・
Miss ▲ Close bout
young
eastMaegashira 16
Wakanosho
○ Win
47%
morning
westMaegashira 8
Asahakuryu
●Loss
53%
Data Oyakata Miss
Wakanosho ButTsukiotoshiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Asahakuryu

The soil strength is even, and it will be the best depending on the performance on the day. Previous basho had a good record with 10 wins and 5 losses. Asahakuryu is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Wakanosho 1 - 3 Asahakuryu
Strength index 2295 — 2280
Previous basho 11 wins, 4 losses — 10 wins, 5 losses
See Wakanosho See Asahakuryu
Head-to-head record before this bout
2024 Kyushu Basho 6Day Wakanosho Oshidashi
2024 Aki Basho 8Day Asahakuryu Yorikiri of
2024 Nagoya Basho 2Day Asahakuryu Oshidashi
2023 Aki Basho 4Day Asahakuryu Yorikiri of
・
Miss ▲ Close bout
time
eastMaegashira 12
Tokihayate
●Loss
52%
Nishiki
westMaegashira 9
Nishikifuji
○ Win
48%
Data Oyakata Miss
Nishikifuji ButHatakikomiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Nishikifuji

The soil strength is even, and it will be the best depending on the performance on the day. Tokihayate is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Tokihayate 5 - 3 Nishikifuji
Strength index 2221 — 2264
Previous basho 5 wins, 10 losses — 9 wins, 6 losses
See Tokihayate See Nishikifuji
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 2Day Nishikifuji Yorikiri of
2025 Kyushu Basho 1Day Tokihayate Yorikiri of
2025 Hatsu Basho 1Day Tokihayate Uwatenage
2024 Kyushu Basho 3Day Tokihayate Tsukiotoshi
2024 Aki Basho 14Day Nishikifuji Yorikiri of
・
Miss ▲ Close bout
Sho
eastMaegashira 15
Tobizaru
●Loss
51%
gold
westMaegashira 11
Kinbozan
○ Win
49%
Data Oyakata Miss
Kinbozan ButOshitaoshiDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Kinbozan

The soil strength is even, and it will be the best depending on the performance on the day. I'm a little worried about Mt. Kinpus, having lost 5 games in a row.

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Head-to-head Tobizaru 3 - 3 Kinbozan
Strength index 2321 — 2255
Previous basho 6 wins, 9 losses — 9 wins, 6 losses
See Tobizaru See Kinbozan
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Haru Basho 6Day Kinbozan Hatakikomi
2025 Kyushu Basho 4Day Tobizaru Sotogake
2025 Aki Basho 13Day Kinbozan Hatakikomi
2025 Natsu Basho 12Day Kinbozan Tsukidashi
2024 Haru Basho 14Day Tobizaru Okurinage
・
Correct ✓ ▲ Close bout
lion
eastMaegashira 12
Shishi
○ Win
57%
dragon
westMaegashira 16
Ryuden
●Loss
43%
Data Oyakata Correct ✓
Shishi ButYorikiriDeWin
Okamisan's pick

Pick Shishi

The soil strength is even, and it will be the best depending on the performance on the day. Ryuden is good at recording battles.

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Head-to-head Shishi 2 - 4 Ryuden
Strength index 2255 — 2222
Previous basho 6 wins, 9 losses — 9 wins, 6 losses
See Shishi See Ryuden
Head-to-head record before this bout
2026 Hatsu Basho 9Day Shishi Oshidashi
2025 Aki Basho 6Day Shishi Yorikiri of
2025 Natsu Basho 12Day Ryuden Yorikiri of
2025 Haru Basho 1Day Ryuden Yoritaoshi of
2025 Hatsu Basho 3Day Ryuden Yorikiri of
🧐
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